Sunday, February 8, 2009

Keeping me up at night....

So this whole economic mess has me thinking.......
A few years back- probably about 5 ish, since I don't remember the boy being around as much- I got myself hooked onto the series of books that Robert Kiyosaki authored, aptly named "Rich Dad Poor Dad." Now, there has been all sorts of conjecture involving the actual authenticity of the two title characters, but that is not really the purpose of this post. The series revolves around the concepts of "working for a living" versus "having money work for you". I feel the books are appealing (I believe we are talking 23 million copies, when all is said and done for the entire series) mostly due to their simple, easy to digest messaging- which obviously is not the key to getting rich. This does not mean, however, that you can't get a morsel or two out of his work. One of the books that I got a few morsels from is called "Rich Dad Prophecy."
The book does not waste time illustrating a Nostradamus like ability to predict the future, but instead expounds around the following theme:
The government forces retirees to withdraw their money to a certain degree once they reach a certain age (1974- ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act). About 2012, barring a change to the law, the baby boomers will all be forced to start withdrawing their money from their 401K's. Which amounts to, in roundabout numbers, about 1000 per month per retiree, and about 20 million people hit over the 3-5 years, amounts to about $20,00,000,000 we are yanking out of the market. A month.
So what this means is that, well, if the economy doesn't turn around anytime soon, all these retirees are going to get their money, and most likely keep it out of the market. With retirement savings most likely dropped a bit over the past year or so- hopefully people that are retiring by 2012 have their money invested less in riskier instruments, such and stocks, and are in more safer investments- I can't imagine that these people will be doing anything but holding onto their cash.
This is just another reason why I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the premise that many seem to embrace- that "well, the market is doing bad, but we should be out of it in a year.....tops". Depressions are not short lived - the last one stuck around from 1930 to... 1939- some say a bit longer. If we are assuming that this all started in 2005.... isn't 2010 a bit premature to say that we are out of the woods?
I am pondering how to make money over the next few years, outside of hard work. I am having a hard time thinking that things are going to get better anytime soon, and I have to have an investment plan that revolves around that thinking. I could go the "safe" diversify route- but even they are barely keeping their noses above water. I was lucky enough to pull out my 401K before the market completely tanked, and move it all into money market funds. But with this possibly looming on the horizon- the only place to put money, IMHO, is into a business that I know will make money for me personally. Thus the gut wrenching dilemma of discovering... what the hell am I good enough at so as to grow my money in, over time?

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