I've been nervous.
Anxious.
Like a lot.
For the past 6 months.
Apparently so has my co worker at work. 'Cause he just quit this week.
Gray cloud? I now have to work for 2.
Silver lining? I aint gettin' fired anytime soon.
*starts whistling "Put on a happy face"*
I'll miss ya Johnny!
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Generalissimo.....
While toting around in my vehicle yesterday, pondering the possible end of an illustrious career at my current company, I happened upon Bloomberg radio. As I listened, sipping at a Irish Cream laden 7-11 Coffee (still the best coffee around- forget that Starbucks/Dunkin Donuts silliness) they hosts of the radio show began discussing some doom and gloom. What hit me below the belt was this little tidbit:"5 of the Dow Industrials are selling below $10."
Just so you know, when a stock hits 10 bucks, this has traditionally been a cost line that would not be crossed by large investors. Sure it's not a penny stock, but the ten dollar mark is a huge hurdle for smaller companies to cross, and it sure as hell is an awful place to be for large companies.
The Dow Industrials only has 30 companies- so 5 of them under 10 is a bit startling. Not remarkable, considering some of the participants are GM, Bank of America, and Citi. Alcoa is a bit of a surprise.
But GE?
GE?????
To quote the greatest character of any show of all time, Gob Bluth "CMON!"
Now honestly, none of this should be surprising, since Warren Buffet threw 3 Billion dollars towards the company a few months ago. The company is not really insulated from any of the damage being thrown around Wall Street. They are a well managed company, and are the number one provider of consumer services in the world. As GE goes, so the United States goes.
And oh yeah, they are the parent company of NBS. Makers of 30 Rock.
I guess what I am trying to say is-- everyone invest in GE now. It's the American thing to do. And dammit I don't think I could take it if I lost 30 Rock like I lost Arrested Development.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Looking ahead
As I sat this morning on my living room couch, with the sounds of Mario Kart dancing through my head, I decided to update some of my business and social networking profiles. After my linkedin facebooking and twittering were complete, I saw a link on "Top five recession proof jobs" on the sidebar. Naturally a curious person, I decide to click on it, to see maybe which basket I should put my eggs in, before they crack.
Lo and behold, right there as the second choice, was listed "pharmaceutical sales representative." The theory being that the positions are servicing the healthcare field, and people are going to continue to get sick.
Naturally, if the "reporter" of this information had done some sort of homework- say- interview someone that works in the field *cough cough* they would understand the landscape a little better. That the "industry" is downsizing on all fronts. Perhaps some biotechs are growing- and good for them btw!- but the "big pharma" industry has been bloated- and has been overfed by the government for the past 8 years.
Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised at the lack of research that was provided in the article. Maybe I am just looking at the wrong companies. But I am of the feeling that there is a information overload going on right now.
What is going to be important over the coming years is prognostication- an ability to anticipate. Not just what is "good" or acceptable- but what is great. Community- in every sense of the word- I would imagine is going to come to the forefront, as people look to each other in times of need. As much as forecasters are saying that the country will respond differently than the Great Depression due to a lack of drive economically by agriculture- the patterns that I know of (deflation followed by severe inflation) seem to be following suit as per the 1930's.
That being said, I am going to read up on some of the books that document economic and social behavior of the recessions and depressions. The gravy train has come to a stop, but that doesn't mean that nothing else is leaving the station.
Lo and behold, right there as the second choice, was listed "pharmaceutical sales representative." The theory being that the positions are servicing the healthcare field, and people are going to continue to get sick.
Naturally, if the "reporter" of this information had done some sort of homework- say- interview someone that works in the field *cough cough* they would understand the landscape a little better. That the "industry" is downsizing on all fronts. Perhaps some biotechs are growing- and good for them btw!- but the "big pharma" industry has been bloated- and has been overfed by the government for the past 8 years.
Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised at the lack of research that was provided in the article. Maybe I am just looking at the wrong companies. But I am of the feeling that there is a information overload going on right now.
What is going to be important over the coming years is prognostication- an ability to anticipate. Not just what is "good" or acceptable- but what is great. Community- in every sense of the word- I would imagine is going to come to the forefront, as people look to each other in times of need. As much as forecasters are saying that the country will respond differently than the Great Depression due to a lack of drive economically by agriculture- the patterns that I know of (deflation followed by severe inflation) seem to be following suit as per the 1930's.
That being said, I am going to read up on some of the books that document economic and social behavior of the recessions and depressions. The gravy train has come to a stop, but that doesn't mean that nothing else is leaving the station.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Keeping me up at night....
So this whole economic mess has me thinking.......
A few years back- probably about 5 ish, since I don't remember the boy being around as much- I got myself hooked onto the series of books that Robert Kiyosaki authored, aptly named "Rich Dad Poor Dad." Now, there has been all sorts of conjecture involving the actual authenticity of the two title characters, but that is not really the purpose of this post. The series revolves around the concepts of "working for a living" versus "having money work for you". I feel the books are appealing (I believe we are talking 23 million copies, when all is said and done for the entire series) mostly due to their simple, easy to digest messaging- which obviously is not the key to getting rich. This does not mean, however, that you can't get a morsel or two out of his work. One of the books that I got a few morsels from is called "Rich Dad Prophecy."
The book does not waste time illustrating a Nostradamus like ability to predict the future, but instead expounds around the following theme:
The government forces retirees to withdraw their money to a certain degree once they reach a certain age (1974- ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act). About 2012, barring a change to the law, the baby boomers will all be forced to start withdrawing their money from their 401K's. Which amounts to, in roundabout numbers, about 1000 per month per retiree, and about 20 million people hit over the 3-5 years, amounts to about $20,00,000,000 we are yanking out of the market. A month.
So what this means is that, well, if the economy doesn't turn around anytime soon, all these retirees are going to get their money, and most likely keep it out of the market. With retirement savings most likely dropped a bit over the past year or so- hopefully people that are retiring by 2012 have their money invested less in riskier instruments, such and stocks, and are in more safer investments- I can't imagine that these people will be doing anything but holding onto their cash.
This is just another reason why I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the premise that many seem to embrace- that "well, the market is doing bad, but we should be out of it in a year.....tops". Depressions are not short lived - the last one stuck around from 1930 to... 1939- some say a bit longer. If we are assuming that this all started in 2005.... isn't 2010 a bit premature to say that we are out of the woods?
I am pondering how to make money over the next few years, outside of hard work. I am having a hard time thinking that things are going to get better anytime soon, and I have to have an investment plan that revolves around that thinking. I could go the "safe" diversify route- but even they are barely keeping their noses above water. I was lucky enough to pull out my 401K before the market completely tanked, and move it all into money market funds. But with this possibly looming on the horizon- the only place to put money, IMHO, is into a business that I know will make money for me personally. Thus the gut wrenching dilemma of discovering... what the hell am I good enough at so as to grow my money in, over time?
A few years back- probably about 5 ish, since I don't remember the boy being around as much- I got myself hooked onto the series of books that Robert Kiyosaki authored, aptly named "Rich Dad Poor Dad." Now, there has been all sorts of conjecture involving the actual authenticity of the two title characters, but that is not really the purpose of this post. The series revolves around the concepts of "working for a living" versus "having money work for you". I feel the books are appealing (I believe we are talking 23 million copies, when all is said and done for the entire series) mostly due to their simple, easy to digest messaging- which obviously is not the key to getting rich. This does not mean, however, that you can't get a morsel or two out of his work. One of the books that I got a few morsels from is called "Rich Dad Prophecy."
The book does not waste time illustrating a Nostradamus like ability to predict the future, but instead expounds around the following theme:
The government forces retirees to withdraw their money to a certain degree once they reach a certain age (1974- ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act). About 2012, barring a change to the law, the baby boomers will all be forced to start withdrawing their money from their 401K's. Which amounts to, in roundabout numbers, about 1000 per month per retiree, and about 20 million people hit over the 3-5 years, amounts to about $20,00,000,000 we are yanking out of the market. A month.
So what this means is that, well, if the economy doesn't turn around anytime soon, all these retirees are going to get their money, and most likely keep it out of the market. With retirement savings most likely dropped a bit over the past year or so- hopefully people that are retiring by 2012 have their money invested less in riskier instruments, such and stocks, and are in more safer investments- I can't imagine that these people will be doing anything but holding onto their cash.
This is just another reason why I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the premise that many seem to embrace- that "well, the market is doing bad, but we should be out of it in a year.....tops". Depressions are not short lived - the last one stuck around from 1930 to... 1939- some say a bit longer. If we are assuming that this all started in 2005.... isn't 2010 a bit premature to say that we are out of the woods?
I am pondering how to make money over the next few years, outside of hard work. I am having a hard time thinking that things are going to get better anytime soon, and I have to have an investment plan that revolves around that thinking. I could go the "safe" diversify route- but even they are barely keeping their noses above water. I was lucky enough to pull out my 401K before the market completely tanked, and move it all into money market funds. But with this possibly looming on the horizon- the only place to put money, IMHO, is into a business that I know will make money for me personally. Thus the gut wrenching dilemma of discovering... what the hell am I good enough at so as to grow my money in, over time?
Saturday, February 7, 2009
So yeah...... how bout dem jobs?
Alright, first off- much apologies for not actually writing anything for a month. Or two. Mostly three. I feel however, it would be fair to say that I've been quite busy since November. Work has been quite the bear, and I would not be able to look myself in the mirror and honestly say I have been doing my job proper justice if I had been spending much time blogging.
So yeah- things are a bit scary out there employment wise. For all of you under the impression that a job in the pharmaceutical industry has the equivalent job security as, what say, "the health industry", you may want to rethink that position. I am fortunate to have products that are Cardiac related, so I am not hit hard as those that sell in the "recreational" area- and by that, I mean- stuff that isn't keeping you alive. For example: Sleep medications, anti depressants, anti biotics (outside of, you know, hospitalization type infections), etc. I don't mean the hard stuff!
Nonetheless, the industry is downsizing at about a 30-40% clip. Pfizer announced a merger with Wyeth, just after laying off 4K people (company wide) and further announced another 19K reduction in the next year. And Pfizer sells some big money drugs- I am sure you have heard of Lipitor, have you not?
That being said, since people are having less jobs, people are having less insurance to pay for pesky things like prescriptions, and the companies are projecting a swift kick in the nads to their bottom lines.
What is worst of all is that I have to actually buy my own pens and paper now. THE HORROR
OK, that last part was just an inside joke. But this whole economy/job thing is sort of staggering.
While listening/reading the news as of late, most are easily projecting a double digit unemployment rate. I first looked at things in the light of "Well, that's only a few percentage points away at this point- it's not much of a change. We are already at 7%." Then, I realized, that if we go to 10.5% what say, that we still have an extra 50% to add to the numbers that are already out there. And that's just a low level of "double digits"
I f*ckin' hate math! It has an awful way of sneaking up on you.
What's nice is this........ A few months ago- I predicted $8 gasoline. And then- quite in line with all my other attempts at predicting how markets will go- gasoline dropped to about $1.85 locally. So I am hoping that the job market follows suit.
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